The Total Portfolio
Dozens of macro calls every week. How do you make sense of them?
We synthesize market calls from institutional desks and hedge fund PMs, and score them against what actually happened.
Not a trading tool. Built for RIAs, family offices, and wealth advisors who want sophisticated market positioning.
This Week's Read
Weekly Commentary
Iran-energy and AI earnings drove this week's signals. Every source that covered oil went bullish, pointing to the May 4 OPEC+ decision and lingering Hormuz risk. Inflation was unanimously positive across all six sources, with three at conviction 3. Technology stayed the consensus equity overweight on the back of Q1 earnings and the hyperscaler capex cycle.
Duration was the main split. BlackRock, RBC, LPL, and NW Mutual all said stay short, citing sticky inflation, fiscal dominance, and a Fed on hold. JPMorgan expected cuts later in the year once energy faded. BofA went explicitly neutral near-term, arguing slower growth and contained longer-term inflation would favor duration once the shock passes.
The dollar also split. BlackRock, JPMorgan, and RBC called it weaker on reserve-status erosion and Fed divergence. LPL took the other side on safe-haven flows and US growth resilience. Real estate and consumer staples leaned negative across the sector feeds.
Portfolio Implications
- Duration was 4-to-1 bearish with BofA neutral. If you're long bonds, most sources said you're fighting the consensus, though BofA flagged a reversal once energy fades.
- Technology kept its position as the highest-conviction equity overweight. BlackRock cited 43% tech earnings growth and JPMorgan flagged hyperscaler capex running at a fevered pace.
- The dollar split 3-to-1. BlackRock, JPMorgan, and RBC called USD weaker. LPL disagreed on safe-haven flows. Currency hedging mattered more than usual for international allocations.
- Inflation was unanimous and the highest net score on the board, with NW Mutual flagging core PCE stuck at 3% since late 2023. Gold and commodities followed the same thread.
This Week's Signals
Ranked in declining order of conviction. Published research desks are named. Hedge fund panelists participate anonymously as HF1, HF2, etc.
Macro Factors
Sector Factors
Source Accuracy Leaderboard
We score every institutional call. Sources earn or lose credibility based on what actually happened.
LPL
4 hits / 0 misses / 0 neutral out of 4 signals
100%
hit rate
NW Mutual
4 hits / 0 misses / 0 neutral out of 4 signals
100%
hit rate
BlackRock
0 hits / 4 misses / 0 neutral out of 4 signals
0%
hit rate
RBC
0 hits / 4 misses / 0 neutral out of 4 signals
0%
hit rate
How It Works
A rigorous, transparent methodology for extracting and scoring macro signals.